Thursday, February 19, 2009

Fantasy Market (2/19/2009)

As the trade deadline has just passed in the NBA, teams are primarily focused on one goal: the playoffs. The ones clearly out of the picture are prepping for next season, while those in the hunt hope to buckle down for the final stretch of the regular season.

Likewise, all you fantasy basketball players should be doing the same. Post-all-star break is a critical time in which you need your team to start putting together some consistent production. This is where experienced fantasy players separate themselves from their fellow noobs. Seasoned veterans will make the necessary moves and sacrifices with the ultimate goal of winning.

For those of you that clearly can't make the playoffs, keep your heads up and keep fighting each week; your participation can still greatly affect the playoff landscape.

For those that have hung onto injured players, it's time to realistically think about the future benefits that your injured player could potentially bring. As with money, take into account the present value of these future "cash flows". 12pts and 5 rebs off the waiver wire is more beneficial than 18 and 8 for the final week of the playoffs. Especially if your team can't even make it there. Fantasy trade deadlines are approaching. If you can't move these injured guys, then you take the risk of being stuck with a goose-egg the rest of the way (unless of course you drop him).

Sell High

Yao Ming: I mentioned him in the previous Fantasy Market. He has played 51 games thusfar. Last season he played a total of 55, the year before 48. I get the feeling history is about to repeat itself. Yao has strung together a nice serious of games recently so you should be able to get some great value for him. Get him off of your hands while he's still healthy!

Tyrus Thomas/Joakim Noah: One of these two guys (or maybe both) will slow down a bit with Brad Miller joining them in the Bulls's frontcourt. I've also just read that the Bulls have acquired Tim Thomas from the Knicks. Both have played surprisingly well in Drew Gooden's absence, but are bound to lose PT as well as offensive touches with these new big guys on the roster.

Jermaine O'neal: Yea, yea, yea...I know he just got traded to a Miami Heat team that was in desperate need of a dominant post presence. I know that when he's healthy, he's an awesome player that can pretty much do it all. I know this; everyone knows this. However, getting traded to the Heat does not make O'neal any more reliable health-wise. He's already missed significant stretches this season for various ailments, and there is no reason to think that he won't miss more. Take advantage of the current hype around his situation to sell high.

John Salmons: Salmons has had an awesome fantasy season up til this point. He can score, rebound, steal, and shoot good %s. But Chicago isn't the same situation as Sacremento. The Bulls are stacked in the backcourt. Rose, Gordon, Hinrich, and Deng all need touches. I'm not saying that Salmons will become fantasy irrelevent, but expect a decline in production. I'd move him if I could.

Buy Low

Al Horford:
Horford has been a relative disappointment this season given his success as a rookie. Many were expecting big things from this second-year, but his production is eerily close to the numbers he put up last season. Back from his first significant injury of his career, I expect to see Horford surprise many in the coming months. Horford exploded last season after the All-Star break, and I can see him doing it again this year. Thus far, he hasn't put together a consistent string of impressive games, but he has shown flashes of his potential dominance. Just last night, he had 18pts, 18rebs, 4asts, 2blks, and a steal.

Leandro Barbosa: The Suns put up 140+ pts in consecutive nights. Absolutely ridiculous. Now I know both games were against the lowly Clippers, but it's quite an accomplishment nonetheless. With Terry Porter out and Alvin Gentry in at head coach, Phoenix has returned to the run-and-gun, "seven seconds or less" offensive mentality. This means more shots for everyone. Take all this and add Jason Richardson's recent trouble with the law, and now you have a prime situation for Barbosa to shine. If you want points, threes, or steals, get him now.

Ron Artest: Tmac is out for the season (surprise, surprise). Someone will need to pick up the scoring slack. That someone is Ron Artest. Enough said.

Raefer Alston: Skip to my Lou just got traded to the Orlando Magic. I guess Anthony Johnson and Tyrone Lue weren't adequete to fill in for Jameer.

Mike Conley: Conley isn't the ideal buy low candidate; he's been putting up great numbers recently. However, his role as point-guard just got cemented even more when the Grizz shipped Kyle Lowry away. Conley's turnovers and shooting%s might be iffy, but he can score, rebound, and assist. He's a good type of player to have in the last couple of seats on your team.

1 comment:

Izzy said...

Really good analysis on the fantasy players. I do think that Ty Thomas is going to stay consistently solid. He is injured for a game or two right now, but he has found his role. I haven't given much thought to how Brad Miller and Thomas will coincide together, but I don't expect one to significantly hinder the others' play.

What about Aaron Brooks? I think that he has a chance to really take advantage of his situation right now in Houston. Francisco Garcia is someone I think could be added to your 'buy low' list. He is overlooked because he plays on the worst team in the league, but he plays 3 positions for the Kings, and he has put up some decent numbers. Not as good as he is capable of, but I think that he will put up solid numbers if you are in need of some scoring and a solid rebound contributor. Also, if you could put something out about what to do if you own Peja...that would be great because I am screwed right now! haha

keep up the good work!