Cinderella Story

Every year, I participate in a fantasy basketball league with some of my high school alum. We play H2H, standard 9 cats, 10 positions (PG,SG,G,SF,PF,F,C,C,Util,Util) with 4 bench spots. While normally pretty competitive, this league was especially competitive this year. This year also happened to be the first year we transitioned into a keeper league.

Following the draft, I was pretty satisfied with my team; being 12th pick, I took Deron Williams knowing that his ankle injury would keep him out for a while. I never could have imagined how large an impact his injury would have on my fantasy season. Here's a weekly look at my team's (T3Oriental) record:
Don't be fooled by all the wins you see. I started the season in the worst possible fashion; four huge losses to four eventual playoff teams. At the start of week 5, I was dead last. Deron's ankle was still messed up, Al Harrington gave me zeroes across the board for weeks, and Joakim Noah was a dud. The string of wins following the horrendous start weren't all that great either; I could only win 6-3 or 5-4, never really gaining ground on the front of the pack.

The season continued as an uphill struggle. Bogut was up and down (and eventually completely out) with his back issues, Rip Hamilton was out for a while, and Marvin Williams went down during the final stretch of the season. The week before the playoffs, I was still sitting out in 7th (or 8th) place. Luckily for me, I squeaked into the playoff race thanks to some huge free agent contributions, and losses by the other teams competing for the last few spots. Here's how the standings looked at the end of the season:
Spots 4-10 were separated by just 4.5 games (also note my league high 66 moves...I was streaming like it was my job). The fight for the playoffs was long and gruesome. And the time since hasn't been that much easier.


That being said, my team has trucked it to the championship match. From last place to (almost) the top, this season has been one crazy journey. The championship week matchup is going to be tough; though I'm facing the 6 seed, he's got a stacked lineup (Kobe, Durant, Dwight Howard, Boozer, etc) and is also rolling. But win or lose, I'm chalking this year up as an accomplishment.

Wish me luck

Waiver Wire Watch (3/26/09): Streaming

Fantasy playoffs have officially started for those of us in Yahoo leagues. I am sure many managers (including myself) have suffered late-season injuries, and thus are in dire need of replacements or a miracle.

So really, now (actually maybe last week) is the time to buckle down and decide on who you still want on your team. There's no room for continual zeroes when a steal or rebound could be the difference between a first round failure and a championship. Today I want to look at a practice that could potentially win you your league: streaming.

stream⋅ing
~noun
1.) the act of adding/dropping players daily in order to attain higher totals stats across various categories...

I know there are many opposed to streaming; at initial glance, it appears like a convenient way of accumulating more stats. Honestly, I used to get annoyed when I looked down at the recent transactions section only to see that the "DETROIT BALLAZ" exchanged half their team for free agents every single day.

That being said, streaming is still a legitimate option as long as it's practiced with care and caution. If you're going to stream, make sure you put in your due research before arbitrarily picking up a player. Nothing annoys me more than when I see a manager pick up a player, and drop him three minutes later because he decided that another free agent was better. Meanwhile, the rest of the league is now stuck with a free agent that can't be acquired until the waiver-period ends. Careless streaming will hinder other managers from streaming, thus creating negative feelings and...you get the point.

Anyways, if you are one of those managers that's had your team destroyed by injuries, you have to play to the strengths of the players you have left. Look at your matchup; if your opponent has Kobe, Durant, Dwight Howard, and averages 800+ points a week, then don't go looking for free agent scorers if your team barely reaches 600pts a week. Also look at the actual NBA matchups; anytime you see a team playing against NY, GS, LAC, or PHX, know that that free agent might be a good pickup. Likewise, if Player X scored 22 pts and went 5/6 from beyond the arc in his last game against Golden State, understand that he probably won't do that again against the Celtics.

Below I've listed some of the players that are on my "stream list". Again remember to be thorough (give it more than 4 seconds thought) in your research of free agents. Hopefully these guys can help you on your way to a fantasy championship.

Courtney Lee (10% owned): Courtney Lee has received much praise from his teammates, coaches, and critics as of late. Despite being a rookie, he plays both ends of the court with the composure of a veteran, and because of that, Stan Van Gundy gets him his minutes. In his last five games, he's averaged around 33 minutes and 15 pts a game, has 9 steals, 9 3's, and shot very well from the line and field. Another good sign is that he's doing this even though Orlando has no significant injuries (other than Jameer, who won't be coming back soon). If you need threes or steals, stream him (maybe even consider making him a permanent fixture).

Steve Novak (11% owned): Novak is a guy that frustrates me. In 6 of his last 8 games, he's made 3 or more 3pters. In those other two games, he's had zero points. I've streamed him into my line-up twice, and both those occasions just happened to be the nights where he's scored zilch. However, from an objective point of view, chances are they he'll light it up from 3pt land if you add him into your line-up. Again, if you need threes, look into picking him up.

Will Bynum (5% owned): Taking full advantage of a golden opportunity, Bynum has played himself into relevance in the absence of AI and Rip. In his last 5 games, he's averaged 16pts, 4.4 assists, and 1.4 steals whil shooting .500 from the floor and 83% from the line. If Hamilton is out for an extended amount of time, Bynum is a great option to stream. It seems like Curry is trusting Bynum more and more as each game goes by. Will plays like a poor man's Allen Iverson (and kind of reminds me of a chubbier Lyndsey Hunter); he's not scared of contact, but is also unselfish.

Anderson Varejao (36% owned): Here's another guy that might deserve to be a permanent member of your team. Ben Wallace is out with a broken leg, giving Anderson the starting PF gig. Other than his questionable FT%, Varejao has been putting together some solid numbers. He's had two games in a row of 16-11, and has shot 22/39 in his last five. I don't see any reason for him to stop his current production anytime soon. As much as I don't like him in real life, I've been streaming him consistently.

Chris Andersen (39% owned): I've given plenty of praise to Andersen in the past. And even though he's not producing as consistently as he was last month, he's still a great source for blocks. With Nene, Kenyon, and the recent emergence of Balkman, Denver's front court is stacked pretty deep. However, Kenyon is known for being injury prone, and Nene is about to serve the 2nd game of his suspension tomorrow night. If you don't have him, at least add him for tomorrow's game.

Flip Murray (15% owned): Murray is a scoring machine. Since Marvin Williams went down with back issues, Murray has seen a boost in minutes and production. He's averaging 19.6ppg in his last five games, and has also made 10 threes. Marvin Williams isn't due back for at least a couple more weeks, so you can count on Murray being a solid plug in any given night. I must warn you that his FT% is very inconsistent; if you can't take a risk with that category, I wouldn't risk it with him.

Others to be streamed: Kyle Korver, Rodney Carney, Anthony Randolph, Quentin Richardson, Craig Smith, Eddie House

Before I end, I'd like to leave you with a video I found from BDL's Bedlam Tournament

He is the only Celtic I like

Waiver Wire Watch (2/26/09): Stat Specific Edition

With fantasy basketball playoffs getting closer and closer, this edition of WWW will be slightly different than normal. Recent injuries to big stars have left teams handicapped during the most crucial period of the fantasy basketball season.

If your team is one of these teams, I suggest scourging the waiver wire and streaming some players. Examine your match-up each week, and determine the categories that are going to be close. Look at your opponents history, and figure out their weaknesses. To help, here are some players that can help in specific categories.

Blocks

Ronny Turiaf (owned in 47% of leagues): Turiaf is ridiculous rate shot blocker: 2.2blks per 20 mins. He had a pretty nice run while Biedrins was out, but Andris has returned. While I expect a slight decrease in minutes and points, you can still expect him to get you two blocks a night. Turiaf also shoots great %s from the field and the line (.50 and .81 respectively). However, keep an eye on his ankle situation; he's currently listed as a day-to-day.

Chris Andersen (owned in 23% of leagues): Nene is out with a knee injury and Kenyon Martin is dealing with back issues. This means more minutes for the Birdman. Andersen currently averages 2.2 blks in a little over 19 minutes; per 48 mins, that's 5.5 blocks a game. Realistically, we can expect Chris to see his minutes increase to around 25 minutes a game, which works out to about 4.2 blocks a night. In his last three games, he's had 4,3, and 5 blocks. Anderson is also a decent source of rebounds, occasionally scores, and his %'s won't kill your team (.57 from the field, .73 from the line). For a deeper analysis of Birdman (from Fantasy Basketball Jedi)

Joel Przybilla (owned in 30% of leagues): Przybilla hasn't been shot blocking at the same rate as the two centers previously mentioned, but he is still a solid source. Currently capitalizing off of Oden's knee injury, Joel has been quietly blocking about a shot a game while collecting 8 rebounds a night. Przybilla is a huge 7 footer so he could go off for 3 of 4 blocks any night. While he's averaging .655 from the field, his .639 FT% is a bit of a turn off. However, he only shoots about two of those a game. If you're team is weak at the center position, Przybilla is a decent fill-in.

Steals

Luke Ridnour (owned in 32% of leagues): Steals is one of those tricky categories to work with; under normal circumstances, I'd suggest to target this category in trades rather than trying to find them on the wire. If you can't seem to work a trade out, Ridnour isn't a horrible option to pick up. Ramon Sessions has been receiving all the attention since Michael Redd went down, and he's living up to that hype for the most part. Ridnour however, I wouldn't suggest adding unless you're in a deeper league. He's averages a steal a game, and actually averages around 30 minutes a game (recently 25). He's good for 4-5 assists a night and close to 10 points.

Kirk Hinrich (owned in 37% of leagues): Again, not a player I'd recommend for every team to pick up. Like everyone on the Bulls not named Derrick Rose, Hinrich's production will be very inconsistent. Recent trends show he gets between 25-3o minuntes a night, and averages 1.3 steals a game. Remember that not too long ago, Kirk was a 2nd/3rd tier point guard. Who knows? Maybe he can bring back his glory days...just kidding, not a chance. However, Kirk will also be a decent source of assists and threes.

Sebastian Telfair (owned in 17% of leagues): Surprisingly Telfair is probably your best bet out of the guards in this category. The T-Wolves have shifted Foye to SG, and gave Telfair the chance to start at PG. He's collected 7 steals in his last three games, and is averaging well over 30 minutes a game in his last 10 games. Aside of steals, Telfair is also good source of assists (about 6 a game) and threes (10/29 from 3pt range in his last 5 games). Be aware of his FG% (.358).If he's a free agent, and you have a spot, he's worth the risk.

Three Pointers

Daequan Cook (owned in 15% of leagues): The reigning NBA 3pt champ is one of those wildly inconsistent guys that could explode any given night. In Miami's latest game, Cook flourished when Spoelstra shifted Wade to PG and inserted Cook as SG (instead of inserting Quinn as PG). Cook is currently averaging a very good 2.3 threes a game. Some night's he'll make 5, others zero. Again, if you have an extra spot, or need threes for a match-up, pick him up. He doesn't turn the ball over much, and shoots a good FT% too.

Steve Blake (owned in 41% of leagues): Blake has played surprisingly well for the rapidly maturing Blazers. He makes about two 3pters a game, and is also averages 10pts and 5 assists a game while shooting 83% from the line. Another perk for this point guard is his low TO rate. Blake is definitely worth a final roster spot in standard leagues.

Rasual Butler (owned in 30% of leagues): Butler is purely a source of points and threes. He's put together a decent string of games as of late. He's 20/43 from long range in his last ten games, and has averaged 13.6 ppg over that period. Bulter will also get you an occasional steal and block. Additionally neither of his %s (.450 from the field, .754 from the line) will hurt your team too much. I don't know if I would make him a permanent fixture of my team, but he's definitely a guy I'd stream in and out depending on needs.

Fantasy Market (2/19/2009)

As the trade deadline has just passed in the NBA, teams are primarily focused on one goal: the playoffs. The ones clearly out of the picture are prepping for next season, while those in the hunt hope to buckle down for the final stretch of the regular season.

Likewise, all you fantasy basketball players should be doing the same. Post-all-star break is a critical time in which you need your team to start putting together some consistent production. This is where experienced fantasy players separate themselves from their fellow noobs. Seasoned veterans will make the necessary moves and sacrifices with the ultimate goal of winning.

For those of you that clearly can't make the playoffs, keep your heads up and keep fighting each week; your participation can still greatly affect the playoff landscape.

For those that have hung onto injured players, it's time to realistically think about the future benefits that your injured player could potentially bring. As with money, take into account the present value of these future "cash flows". 12pts and 5 rebs off the waiver wire is more beneficial than 18 and 8 for the final week of the playoffs. Especially if your team can't even make it there. Fantasy trade deadlines are approaching. If you can't move these injured guys, then you take the risk of being stuck with a goose-egg the rest of the way (unless of course you drop him).

Sell High

Yao Ming: I mentioned him in the previous Fantasy Market. He has played 51 games thusfar. Last season he played a total of 55, the year before 48. I get the feeling history is about to repeat itself. Yao has strung together a nice serious of games recently so you should be able to get some great value for him. Get him off of your hands while he's still healthy!

Tyrus Thomas/Joakim Noah: One of these two guys (or maybe both) will slow down a bit with Brad Miller joining them in the Bulls's frontcourt. I've also just read that the Bulls have acquired Tim Thomas from the Knicks. Both have played surprisingly well in Drew Gooden's absence, but are bound to lose PT as well as offensive touches with these new big guys on the roster.

Jermaine O'neal: Yea, yea, yea...I know he just got traded to a Miami Heat team that was in desperate need of a dominant post presence. I know that when he's healthy, he's an awesome player that can pretty much do it all. I know this; everyone knows this. However, getting traded to the Heat does not make O'neal any more reliable health-wise. He's already missed significant stretches this season for various ailments, and there is no reason to think that he won't miss more. Take advantage of the current hype around his situation to sell high.

John Salmons: Salmons has had an awesome fantasy season up til this point. He can score, rebound, steal, and shoot good %s. But Chicago isn't the same situation as Sacremento. The Bulls are stacked in the backcourt. Rose, Gordon, Hinrich, and Deng all need touches. I'm not saying that Salmons will become fantasy irrelevent, but expect a decline in production. I'd move him if I could.

Buy Low

Al Horford: Horford has been a relative disappointment this season given his success as a rookie. Many were expecting big things from this second-year, but his production is eerily close to the numbers he put up last season. Back from his first significant injury of his career, I expect to see Horford surprise many in the coming months. Horford exploded last season after the All-Star break, and I can see him doing it again this year. Thus far, he hasn't put together a consistent string of impressive games, but he has shown flashes of his potential dominance. Just last night, he had 18pts, 18rebs, 4asts, 2blks, and a steal.

Leandro Barbosa: The Suns put up 140+ pts in consecutive nights. Absolutely ridiculous. Now I know both games were against the lowly Clippers, but it's quite an accomplishment nonetheless. With Terry Porter out and Alvin Gentry in at head coach, Phoenix has returned to the run-and-gun, "seven seconds or less" offensive mentality. This means more shots for everyone. Take all this and add Jason Richardson's recent trouble with the law, and now you have a prime situation for Barbosa to shine. If you want points, threes, or steals, get him now.

Ron Artest: Tmac is out for the season (surprise, surprise). Someone will need to pick up the scoring slack. That someone is Ron Artest. Enough said.

Raefer Alston: Skip to my Lou just got traded to the Orlando Magic. I guess Anthony Johnson and Tyrone Lue weren't adequete to fill in for Jameer.

Mike Conley: Conley isn't the ideal buy low candidate; he's been putting up great numbers recently. However, his role as point-guard just got cemented even more when the Grizz shipped Kyle Lowry away. Conley's turnovers and shooting%s might be iffy, but he can score, rebound, and assist. He's a good type of player to have in the last couple of seats on your team.